Worst Scenario in 2007, Iraq War Linked to Middle East War
“North Korean leader Kim Jung Il calls on UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon for direct dialogue with the US and massive economic aid as conditions of its nuclear weapon program.”
“Osama Bin Laden dies in a hospital in Pakistan, and US vice President Dick Cheney resigns due to bad health.”
Paul Moorcraft from the British Center for Foreign Policy Analysis listed optimistic scenarios in his column, Foreign Policy in 2007, published in the Washington Times.
In a list of pessimistic scenarios, he forecast that the Iraq civil war will get worse, despite 20,000 or more additional U.S. troops dispatched to Iraq. Even 200,000 extra troops will not make a difference in the sectarian passions in Iraq. A worst scenario is that Iraq’s civil war is converted into a Middle East war.
Iraq's Sunni population is protected by Saudi Arabia, which causes another conflict with Shiite Iran, and Jordan, Egypt and some of the Gulf States assist Saudi Arabia. In the end, this series of prompts expedites Sunni versus Shiite disorder in the whole Middle East region, as well as in Lebanon.
Moorcraft also drew another pessimistic scenario where Israel intervenes in the south to stop the war from plunging into its state, and then moves back into parts of Gaza and the West Bank to prevent a worse civil war between Hamas and Fatah.
He said, “There are unknown unknowns that we can’t recognize this year, but the Western concern seems to be the Iraq war.”
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 / 입력시간: 2007. 01.06. 09:16
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